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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd