A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
